Why The North Korean Artillery Factor Makes Military Action Extremely Risky [Infographic]

Why The North Korean Artillery Factor Makes Military Action Extremely Risky [Infographic]

Last month, a poll found that a majority of Americans  now support military action against North Korea if diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis fail. While the United States undoubtedly possesses the military hardware and capabilities to deliver an effective strike on Pyongyang’s nuclear facilities, retaliation by the North is highly likely to occur. While this could of course come in the shape of one of the regime’s much vaunted intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with a nuclear warhead, observers believe the north’s artillery would almost certainly inflict devastating damage against the south, regardless of the missile program.

While a substantial part of North Korea’s military is made up of old antiquated Soviet weaponry, its artillery capabilities remain exceptionally powerful. The North Korean People’s Army Artillery Command has an estimated 12,000 pieces of tube artillery and another 2,300 multiple launch rocket systems. Koksan 170mm self-propelled guns and 240mm and 300mm multiple launch rocket batteries are capable of striking Seoul, though it is believed that the capital’s northern outskirts would be under the most threat from the systems with the longest range. While some studies have predicted Seoul’s annihilation, it’s likely that some districts would be heavily damaged with a significant level of civilian casualties.

For North Korea, deciding exactly what to target with all of those heavy guns would prove vital in any conflict. The regime could strike military targets across the demilitarized zone or hit South Korean urban areas in an attempt to inflict a shocking blow through mass civilian casualties and economic damage. The latter strategy would leave North Korean artillery vulnerable to counter barrages and airstrikes, giving the U.S. and South Korea a better chance at containing and eliminating the threat.

The following infographic is based on research conducted by Stratfor and it shows where North Korean artillery fire could be most heavily concentrated in a war with the south. The scenario is based on known and expected positions of conventional artillery as well as a situation where North Korea exposes all of its artillery simultaneously without failures. While the immediate border area could be heavily saturated by explosives, the airport at Incheon and parts of Seoul would also come under threat. The danger posed by artillery was already highlighted in November 2010 when North Korean shells and rockets were fired at Yeonpyeong Island, killing four South Koreans and wounding another 19. If the U.S. and its allies do eventually conduct a strike against Pyongyang’s nuclear facilities, the sheer size of the north’s artillery force means it will always have a devastating card to play in the event of any conflict.