Why North Korea Might Do the Unthinkable: Test a Nuclear Weapon in the Pacific Ocean

Why North Korea Might Do the Unthinkable: Test a Nuclear Weapon in the Pacific Ocean


The Trump Administration may inadvertently be provoking North Korea into conducting a live-fire test of a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile.

While it is clear that North Korea has both ballistic missile technology and a working hydrogen bomb, the U.S. State Department recently suggested in a tweet that Pyongyang does not have such capabilities. While many prominent international relations experts and former U.S. government officials immediately derided the State Department’s tweet, similar statements in previous decades prompted China to conduct a risky live-five nuclear missile test on October 27, 1966. Pyongyang—feeling the pressure to prove its capabilities—might do the same.

“#DPRK will not obtain a nuclear capability. Whether through diplomacy or force is up to the regime @StateDept,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert tweeted on October 1 to much derision.

Prominent detractors immediately noted that Nauert seems to have missed the fact that North Korea already possesses nuclear capability. Indeed, some arms control experts are convinced that such statements are actually provoking the North Koreans, especially when taken together with President Donald Trump’s own bellicose statements. Trump recently sent out a tweet on October 1 that effectively undercut Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s efforts at diplomacy with Pyongyang.

Such statements only embolden North Korea to attempt a so-called Juche Bird live-fire nuclear missile test. “Oh, yes,” Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, told The National Interest.

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“The more we say they we're going to attack them before they have a nuclear deterrent, the more sense it makes to demonstrate that it’s too late and that they are already nuclear armed.”

Indeed, in previous weeks, as tensions have ratcheted up, North Korean officials have threatened to conduct such a live-fire nuclear test. "It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific," North Korean foreign minister Ri Yong-ho told reporters according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency on September 21.

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"We have no idea about what actions could be taken as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong-un."

Joshua H. Pollack, editor of the The Nonproliferation Review and a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, noted however that Pyongyang might not be playing close attention to the State Department. They are, however, paying attention to Trump’s own statements and tweets—which often contradict those of his underlings.

“I don’t think they’re attuned to State in North Korea. They’re watching what Trump says and does!” Pollack told The National Interest.

“Two observations. First, have a look at KJU's [Kim Jong-un] reply to Trump's U.N. speech. He expressed surprise to hear remarks of this sort in a planned speech, as opposed to off-the-cuff remarks (an apparent reference to ‘fire and fury’). That's when he basically said that all options are on the table, in not so many words. Later, Ri Yong Ho gave public remarks in response to a Trump tweet - the first time they have overtly done so. I think they've decided that they now have to take Trump both seriously and literally, to coin a phrase.”

Thus far, there are no indications that North Korea will conduct a live-fire nuclear test in the Pacific—such an act would be extraordinarily provocative. But then there might not be any indication of such a test until the weapon explodes in a nuclear fireball somewhere over the ocean.

“I am not sure what indications one would expect — it will probably look like any other missile test until it explodes,” Lewis said.

“In the past, I have seen concerns expressed about suspicious movements between the site that assembles nuclear weapons and missile launch sites, but those have all been false alarms.  So, any indicators used by the U.S. intelligence community will just have the inherent problem of false positives.”

If the North Koreans do test such a live nuclear-tipped ballistic missile, it will likely be an intermediate range weapon, but it is possible that Pyongyang would test an intercontinental range weapon just so that Washington understands that the Kim regime can reach out and touch the American homeland.

“Probably a Hwasong-12, but I wouldn’t rule out a -14,” Lewis said.

There is no concrete evidence that North Korea will really attempt a live-fire weapons test, but the United States, Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China have all conduct such end-to-end nuclear tests to demonstrate that their strategic deterrent works. Given that North Korea hopes to deter the United States from attempting a regime change, there is a certain logic to conducting a live-fire nuclear test.

“All we have are—one—the fact that the U.S., USSR and China each concluded that such a test was necessary and—two—that the North Koreans have threatened to follow suit,” Lewis said.

Time will tell.

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Trump decries diplomacy with North Korea; Does that mean war's the only option left?

Trump decries diplomacy with North Korea; Does that mean war's the only option left?


Although President Trump has repeatedly stated that going to war with North Korea is not his preferred option, his statements on Sunday would seem to indicate that it’s the only outcome he’s now open to pursuing.

Donald Trump once again took to the social media platform Twitter to convey his foreign policy stance, claiming that American Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, was wasting his time by pursuing talks with Kim Jong un’s despotic regime.

New 'mini-copter' drone able to supply kilos of cargo to battlefields

New 'mini-copter' drone able to supply kilos of cargo to battlefields


Two large drones manufactured by Aeronautics Defense Systems (ADS) were unveiled Wednesday, said to be capable of carrying logistical and supply payloads in ground maneuvers over enemy territory.

The latest unveiling of the state-of-the-art drones ties into the Ministry of Defense's Tuesday announcement regarding soon-to-become operational new devices for the IDF, which shone only a partial light on the world of drones currently picking up steam all over the world—especially due to its military applications.

Drones are now far removed from the models the IDF has already been using for near-range observation missions. They are now part of a wave which may soon equal the activities and contribution made by the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) squadrons.

The new copter drone (Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit) (Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit)
The new copter drone (Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit)
One of the drones unveiled Wednesday is considered a breakthrough in the field of UAVs—thought to still be in its infancy. An Aeronautics subsidiary, working in Be'er Sheva with Ben Gurion University, is completing development on what appears to be an unmanned mini-copter.

This drone has a diameter of two meters and weighs 120 kilos when fully loaded—75-90 kilo of which may be the cargo attached to it. "We'll want to reach weights of 200 and 300 kilos in the future," said a source in the company, which specializes in manufacturing UAVs and observation balloons for the IDF and other security apparatuses in the world. "The drone we developed can fly at exceedingly low altitudes in a manner that both masks it to the naked eye and is energy efficient."

This innovative drone can carry a variety of cargo for special forces, such as a team of soldiers carrying out a covert observation while lying in ambush. The cargo may include observation devices, batteries, weapons, ammunition or food and water, nullifying the need for an APC or other vehicle on the ground, which run the risk of hitting explosives, or for a manned plane to drop them.

One of the aerial vehicle's most distinguishing features is its hybrid engine integrating electric propulsion from batteries with using petrol. This enables the drone to reach distances beyond 8 kilometers. It may also be inputted with coordinates and then controlled from afar.

One of the drone's drawbacks, however, compared to a garden variety UAV, is its short air time capabilities along with the noise it produces, which may expose it to the enemy. "It's for this reason we're working on propellers made of special materials producing less noise," and ADS spokesman explained.

"We'll also be able to fasten each of these logistical drones with a unique cargo for photography and intelligence gathering missions, making it much more versatile," the spokesman continued. "This heavy drone does, in fact, possess elements from the world of UAVs such as avionics, flight control, unique payloads and communication devices. The drone has already participated in drills proving its capabilities."

A man walks past replicas of a North Korean Scud-B missile (C) and South Korean Hawk surface-to-air missiles (L) at the Korean War Memorial in Seoul on May 29, 2017 (AFP PHOTO / JUNG Yeon-Je)

A man walks past replicas of a North Korean Scud-B missile (C) and South Korean Hawk surface-to-air missiles (L) at the Korean War Memorial in Seoul on May 29, 2017 (AFP PHOTO / JUNG Yeon-Je)
“Egypt was a consistent North Korean customer in the past,” Berger told the Post. “I would call them a ‘resilient’ customer today.”

Western diplomats said Egypt initially denied any connection to the weapons haul, then tried obfuscation.

The case exposes the difficulties faced by the international community in trying to use economic sanctions to pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear ambitions.

Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-Un, has managed to mitigate the crippling effect of the sanctions to some extent by continuing to sell cheap arms to countries such as Burma, Cuba, Syria, Eritrea and at least two terrorist groups, as well as key US allies such as Egypt, analysts told the paper.

The Post described that market as “a kind of global eBay for vintage and refurbished Cold War-era weapons, often at prices far lower than the prevailing rates.”

Quoting intelligence officials and Western diplomats, the report said Syria recently bought chemical weapons protective gear from Pyonyang and that the Iranian-backed Lebanese terror group Hezbollah — a “long-term customer” — has acquired North Korean rockets and missiles.

North Korean rifles have even been found on the bodies of Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria, although according to US officials, they were probably stolen from stocks sold long ago to the late Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi.

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Egypt secretly ordered more than 30,000 grenades from North Korea — report

Egypt secretly ordered more than 30,000 grenades from North Korea — report

Weapons ship spotted by US leaving North Korea, approaching Suez canal; sanctions busting order said to be behind US freeze of military aid to Cairo
A container ship passing through the Suez Canal. (photo credit: CC BY Argenberg, Flickr)
A container ship passing through the Suez Canal. (photo credit: CC BY Argenberg, Flickr)
Egypt ordered more than 30,000 rocket-propelled grenades from North Korea in a clandestine sanctions-busting deal that was foiled at the last minute by the US, the Washington Post reported on Monday.

The discovery, which led to what a United Nations report later described as the “largest seizure of ammunition in the history of sanctions against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” exposed one in a series of secret deals between the two countries that prompted US complaints to Egypt and the Trump administration’s decision over the summer to freeze or delay military aid to Cairo worth nearly $300 million.

The ship carrying the weapons to Egypt was spotted in the summer of 2016 by US intelligence, which tracked it as it left North Korea with a North Korean crew and watched it sail westward toward the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal.

The US alerted Egyptian authorities through diplomatic channels. The vessel, which was flying Cambodian colors, carried heavy tarpaulin covering unknown cargo.

Egyptian customs agents were waiting when the ship entered Egypt’s waters outside of the Suez Canal. They discovered the weapons hidden under rocks of iron ore: more than 24,000 rocket-propelled grenades, and completed components for 6,000 more.

All were North Korean copies of a rocket warhead known as the PG-7, a variant of a Soviet munition first built in the 1960s, the Post report said.


A man passes by a TV news program showing a file image of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Sunday, May 21, 2017. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
The crates carrying the arms were marked with the name of a private Egyptian company, which the report could not name, but the sheer number of arms, and the fact that they were clearly intended for large-scale military training, indicated that they were destined for the Egyptian army.

Egypt said in a response that it is transparent and abides by all UN Security Council resolutions.

But a UN probe discovered that Egyptian businessmen had ordered the rockets, worth millions of dollars, for the Egyptian army and had invested great efforts in keeping the deal secret due to the heavy sanctions against North Korea.

According to Andrea Berger, a North Korea specialist and senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, California, Egypt still has diplomatic ties with Pyongyang and military ties dating back to the 1970s, which are hard to break.

Trial to lift lid on Kim Jong-Nam assasination

Trial to lift lid on Kim Jong-Nam assasination
Vietnamese national Doan Thi Huong (L), along with Indonesian Siti Aisyah are accused of killing Kim Jong-Nam on February 13 at Kuala Lumpur airport (AFP Photo/MOHD RASFAN)
Vietnamese national Doan Thi Huong (L), along with Indonesian Siti Aisyah are accused of killing Kim Jong-Nam on February 13 at Kuala Lumpur airportVietnamese national Doan Thi Huong (L), along with Indonesian Siti Aisyah are accused of killing Kim Jong-Nam on February 13 at Kuala Lumpur airport (AFP Photo/MOHD RASFAN)
Kuala Lumpur (AFP) - Two women go on trial Monday accused of murdering the half-brother of North Korea's leader, in an audacious assassination in Malaysia that stunned the world and sparked a diplomatic crisis.

The defendants were arrested just days after the Cold War-style killing of Kim Jong-Nam on February 13 as he waited to board a plane to Macau at Kuala Lumpur airport, but have barely been seen since.

Indonesian Siti Aisyah and Vietnamese Doan Thi Huong, both in their 20s, are accused of rubbing toxic VX nerve agent in his face in a hit that captivated global media attention.

Kim died an agonising death about 20 minutes after the attack, which was caught on airport CCTV as the VX -- a chemical so deadly it is listed as a weapon of mass destruction -- rapidly overcame his central nervous system.

The murder sparked a fierce row between North Korea and Malaysia, which had been one of Pyongyang's few allies amid global alarm over the country's atomic weapons programme, with both countries expelling each other's ambassadors.

The women -- who may face the death penalty if convicted -- are expected to plead not guilty at the start of the trial. The pair claim they were duped into believing they were taking part in a prank for a reality TV show.

Defence lawyers are convinced the real culprits have left Malaysia and that the women's innocence will be proven in court.

"We are fairly confident that at the end of trial, they will probably be acquitted," Hisyam Teh Poh Teik, a lawyer for Huong, told AFP.

Their only appearances since February have been at heavily guarded court dates, with the diminutive pair dwarfed by heavily armed police as they have been ushered into hearings wearing flak jackets and handcuffs in front of the world's media.

The closely-watched trial begins Monday at Sham Alam High Court, just outside Kuala Lumpur, with the prosecution to start presenting its case after the women's pleas.

There are still many unanswered questions surrounding the murder.

These range from how two women living precarious existences among Malaysia's army of migrant workers allegedly became involved in a high-profile assassination, to how a lethal nerve agent was deployed in an airport and killed Kim but harmed no one else.

South Korea accuses the North of being behind the murder of Kim Jong-Un's estranged half-brother, who had voiced criticism of the regime after falling from grace and going to live in exile overseas.

The North denies the allegation.

The run-up to the trial has been marked by fierce criticism from the women's lawyers who accuse prosecutors of failing to properly cooperate with them.

Some North Korean figures suspected of links to the plot fled Malaysia immediately after the assassination, while others were allowed to leave the country later to ease the diplomatic crisis.

Prosecutors -- who insist the women will get a fair trial -- will lay out their case over two months and will call 30 to 40 witnesses. The defence is then likely to be called.

North korea hwasong-12 missile

North korea hwasong-12 missile
This photo, published by the state-owned Korean Central News Agency in mid-September, shows a test launch of North Korea's Hwasong-12 missile.KCNA via Reuters
Trump and Kim's provocations aren't helping
RUSI's report heavily cited Trump's ongoing provocations against North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Earlier this month, the US president referred to Kim as "Rocket Man" in a speech to the United Nations, and Kim responded by calling Trump a "mentally deranged US dotard."

Trump also threatened that Kim and his foreign minister, Ri Yong Ho, "won't be around much longer." Ri said this was effectively a declaration of war.

Gass condemned these actions, saying any attempts to negotiate with North Korea peacefully "cannot be helped by name-calling and exchanges of ritual insults by the main two parties to the debate."